The attached note looks at seasonal patterns in share markets.
The key points are as follows:
- Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern of capital raising through the year.
- While we see shares doing well this year, right now they are vulnerable to a short-term pull back after strong gains since December. Renewed trade fears obviously don’t help.