The attached note looks at seasonal patterns in share markets.

The key points are as follows:

  • Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern of capital raising through the year.
  • While we see shares doing well this year, right now they are vulnerable to a short-term pull back after strong gains since December. Renewed trade fears obviously don’t help.

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