Oliver’s Insights: The risk of a correction or new bear market in shares

Key points:

  • Expect more volatility in shares this year as earnings take over as a key driver and the Fed moves to further taper its monetary stimulus.
  • However, the cyclical bull market in shares is expected to continue as global monetary policy is likely to remain easy, shares are not expensive and we are still not seeing the investor euphoria that goes with market tops.
  • Since 1950 the average cyclical bull market in Australian shares lasted 48 months with a 126% gain. The current bull market has gone for 28 months with a 37% gain.


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