With shares coming up to the one year anniversary of their pandemic lockdown driven lows on 23rd March 2020, the attached note takes a look at where we are in the cyclical bull market in shares and the broader investment.

The key points are as follows:

  • The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go.
  • But it’s normal for the second 12 months of a cyclical bull market to see slower returns from shares.
  • While shares are vulnerable to a further correction triggered by the spike in bond yields, we are not seeing the sort of unambiguous overvaluation, economic overheating, monetary tightening and investor euphoria normally seen at cyclical tops.

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