Federal Budget 2009 Update
This note looks at a summary of the 2009 Federal Budget Update. The key points are as follows: – Taxation. – Superannuation. – First Home Owners. – Government Support. – Private Health Insurance. Read More
Oliver's Insights – China's economic recovery
This note looks at the signs of recovery in China and whether or not it is sustainable. The key points are as follows: – China’s economy is recovery on the back of a combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus, and signs the export slump is easing. It is on track for 8% gross domestic product…
Oliver's Insights – Swine flu – pandemic or just another flu pandemonium?
This note looks at the potential market implications of the outbreak in swine flu now causing concern globally. The key points are as follows: – Swine flu deaths in Mexico and the spread of cases around the world have lead to fears of global flu pandemic. – Coming at a time when the global economy…
Oliver's Insights – Risk and portfolio construction in the aftermath of the global financial crisis
This note looks at the lessons for investors in managing risk and diversification flowing from the global financial crisis. The key points are as follows: – The global financial crisis highlight that quantitative measures of the riskiness of assets and the correlations between them are highly unstable. – There is certainly a role for alternative…
What's driven the rally in shares over the last month? Is it sustainable?
This note looks at the rally in share markets over the past month and whether it is sustainable. The key points are as follows: – Shares have had strong broad based gains over the last month driven by better than expected economic data and policy stimulus going into overdrive. – After 20% or so gains…
Quantitative easing and buying toxic debt – will it work?
This note looks at the recent ramping up of the policy response to the global financial crisis, notably the shift to quantitative easing by several central banks and the US plan to remove bad debts from US banks’ balance sheets and the securities markets. The key points are as follows: – The move to ‘quantitative…
Share market earnings and dividends AND Australian unemployment now 5.2%
This note looks at company profits and dividends during past recessions and what that might tell us about long term trend levels for earnings and what earnings and dividends may do through the current recession. The key points are as follows: – While company earnings likely have more downside ahead of them, the trend level…
Australia enters recession
This note looks at the latest GDP data released in Australia. The key points are as follows: – The Australian economy finally succumbed to the global downturn in the December quarter with GDP falling 0.5%. We are now effectively in recession. In the absence of Government stimulus the fall would have been even steeper. –…
Will the gold rush continue?
This note looks at the surge in the gold price since October. The key points are as follows: Gold has been about the best performing investment this year. It’s been driven by a combination of collapsing interest rates, concern that monetisation will drive inflation, fear of the collapse of the global financial system and general…
Will rising budget deficits just push up inflation and bond yields?
This note looks at the surge in budget deficits and public debt now underway in Australia and around the world in response to the global financial crisis and economic slump. Specifically, will this just push up inflation and bond yields (and hence broader interest rate levels)? The key points are as follows: – Fortunately, Australia…