This note looks at the implications of an upturn in the interest rate cycle for investors. The key points are as follows: – With the economic emergency which followed the global financial crisis now fading into history, interest rates will soon start to rise, with Australia likely to lead the way. – While rising rates…
The following notes takes a look behind the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) target cash rate, its impact on commercial lending rates, the $A, and what interest rate changes mean for the economy. Read More
This note looks at the outlook for the Australian economy. The key points are as follows: – Australia has so far had a very mild economic downturn compared to other countries and its own history. – However, its likely that the economy went backwards in the June quarter and that this will continue into the…
This note looks as the outlook for listed property securities (or real estate investment trusts – REITs). The key points are as follows: – Given the damage done to investor confidence by their big slump over the last 18 months, listed property securities are unlikely to soon return to their once exalted status. – However,…
Given the complexity of investment markets and investing along with the massive amount of information available to investors many people rely on logic based on ‘common sense’ or simple ‘rules of thumb’ in making investment decisions. However, while some such rules of thumb are reasonable, in many cases they are not and can result in…
This note looks at the timing of the economic recovery globally and in Australia, how strong it might be and the implications for shares. The key points are as follows: – The improvement in economic indicators is consistent with an economic recovery by year-end. – While tight credit markets and ongoing deleveraging will most likely…
This note looks at a summary of the 2009 Federal Budget Update. The key points are as follows: – Taxation. – Superannuation. – First Home Owners. – Government Support. – Private Health Insurance. Read More
This note looks at the signs of recovery in China and whether or not it is sustainable. The key points are as follows: – China’s economy is recovery on the back of a combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus, and signs the export slump is easing. It is on track for 8% gross domestic product…
This note looks at the potential market implications of the outbreak in swine flu now causing concern globally. The key points are as follows: – Swine flu deaths in Mexico and the spread of cases around the world have lead to fears of global flu pandemic. – Coming at a time when the global economy…
This note looks at the lessons for investors in managing risk and diversification flowing from the global financial crisis. The key points are as follows: – The global financial crisis highlight that quantitative measures of the riskiness of assets and the correlations between them are highly unstable. – There is certainly a role for alternative…