Why the cash rate is being kept on hold By Tony Kaye, Senior Personal Finance Writer Markets and economy The RBA is unlikely to start easing interest rates until the second quarter of 2025. “The board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target and we need to see more progress…
Our investment and economic outlook, October 2024 By Vanguard Markets and economy Our latest forecasts for investment returns and region-by-region economic outlook. The upturn in U.S. unemployment before the start of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle likely reflects a normalised labour market, not one poised for rapid deterioration. The unemployment rate has risen from 3.4%…
Quarterly economic and market update September 2024 Global equities navigating a more complicated path in the September quarter but still ended at all-time highs. Download Full Update
The interest rate cuts happening behind the scenes By Tony Kaye, Senior Personal Finance Writer Markets and economy Interest rates are officially on hold, but unofficially they’re not. Don’t expect an official rate cut anytime soon. That was the message from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week as it kept its policy cash…
Our investment and economic outlook, August 2024 By Vanguard Markets and economy Our region-by-region economic outlook and latest forecasts for investment returns. This month, we take a closer look at interest rates and the changed anatomy of bond returns. They’re simple enough dynamics: Interest rates rise, bond prices fall; interest rates fall, bond prices rise.…
Economic payoff of AI is coming – but it’s not here yet By Joe Davis, Vanguard Global Chief Economist Markets and economy AI’s rapid run may not prevent a U.S. slowdown or justify high stock valuations. I’m optimistic about the long-term potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to power big increases in worker productivity and economic…
Quarterly economic and market update June 2024 Global equities reached record highs after faltering in April, as the inflation outlook became more favourable as the quarter progressed. The ‘bad news is good news’ dynamic reemerged as weaker economic data, particularly in the United States, contributed to more interest rate cuts priced in by markets… Download…
Our investment and economic outlook, July 2024 By Vanguard Markets and economy Our region-by-region economic outlook and latest forecasts for investment returns. A labour market indicator that has reliably signaled the start of recession could appear in coming months. The Sahm rule (named after the former Federal Reserve economist who identified it) is triggered when…