The great rotation: When valuations start to matter again By Andrew Shuman, Director of Research, Vanguard Oversight & Manager Search, and Kevin Khang, Vanguard Senior Global Economist Markets and economy Investors are debating whether the long‑anticipated “great rotation” is taking shape More than a decade of U.S. equity market leadership was interrupted by a historic…
Oil curve points to shock, not lasting disruption By Fei Xu, Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund Portfolio Manager Markets and economy Navigating volatility Despite the shock, markets expect a quick fix, not a lasting supply loss The outbreak of conflict in Iran has abruptly ended the unusual oil‑market dynamic. At that time, geopolitical risk premia…
Interest rates likely to stay higher for longer By Vanguard Markets and economy Navigating volatility The recent rate hike suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia is prepared to move policy into more restrictive territory As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% at…
Private credit’s third act: Reconnecting with banks By Ankul Daga, Vanguard Head of Private Markets Portfolios and Brian Kim, Vanguard Co-Head of Active High Yield Credit and Head of Active High Yield Credit Research Markets and economy Understanding how market maturity is reshaping private risk credit Private credit has moved from the edge of…
Our investment and economic outlook, February 2026 By Vanguard Markets and economy Our latest forecasts for investment returns and region-by-region economic outlook Australia A rate hike after a short easing cycle “With the economy operating near full capacity and inflation proving persistent, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lean more heavily into…
Higher geopolitical risk premiums support commodities By Fei Xu, Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund Portfolio Manager, and Kevin Khang, Vanguard Senior Global Economist Markets and economy Commodities delivered strong headline returns in 2025. Yet, beneath the surface, this rally was quite uneven—precious metals rose by roughly 80%, while the remainder of the Bloomberg Commodity Index…
Why the AI playbook may have fewer technology stocks By Vanguard Markets and economy The AI megatrend is likely to trigger a stocks rotation over the medium term Most of us have heard of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” U.S. technology stocks – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), NVIDIA, Meta Platforms, and Tesla. Collectively, because of…
The borrowing fallout from higher-for-longer rates By Vanguard Markets and economy Lenders are likely to start passing through the RBA’s rate rise fairly quickly In lifting its official cash rate by 0.25% back to 3.85% last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sent a clear signal that Australian borrowers should expect higher interest…
Have you checked your portfolio today? By Vanguard Markets and economy Rather than worrying about day-to-day price movements, focus here instead If you checked on the status of your investment portfolio today, don’t worry. You’re definitely not alone. In fact, you may have looked at how your various investment holdings are faring multiple times by…
Our investment and economic outlook, January 2026 By Vanguard Markets and economy Our latest forecasts for investment returns and region-by-region economic outlook Australia A modest easing path amid prolonged disinflation “Labour market tightness and subdued productivity growth will keep upward pressure on unit labour costs, prolonging the disinflation process.” Grant Feng, Vanguard Senior Economist…