Our investment and economic outlook, November 2025 By Vanguard Markets and economy Our latest forecasts for investment returns and region-by-region economic outlook Australia Stalling disinflation keeps monetary policy on hold “A stronger-than-expected third-quarter inflation print diminishes the likelihood that inflation will serve as a catalyst for further policy easing in the near term.”…
AI exuberance: Economic upside, stock market downside By Joe Davis, Global Chief Economist Markets and economy The key findings of Vanguard’s economic and market outlook to be released in December Financial markets are exuberant—and there are some good reasons for that. Despite megatrend headwinds in 2025 like demographic slowdowns and rising tariffs, economies held…
Our investment and economic outlook, October 2025 By Vanguard Markets and economy Our latest forecasts for investment returns and region-by-region economic outlook Australia Modest disinflation, tight labour market warrant caution “We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance, with any future easing likely to proceed at a…
Clearer signs needed before another rate cut By Grant Feng, Senior Economist Markets and economy The RBA wants to see a sustained reduction in inflation levels Last week’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep its cash rate on hold at 3.60% came as no surprise. Following the 0.25% interest rate cut…
Our investment and economic outlook, July 2025 By Vanguard Markets and economy Our latest forecasts for investment returns and region-by-region economic outlook Australia Uncertainty, weak growth warrant a dovish central bank “The Reserve Bank of Australia is cautiously dovish amid slow disinflation progress and downside risks related to heightened uncertainty.” Grant Feng, Vanguard…
Expect currency to play a smaller role in future returns By Kevin DiCiurcio, Head of Vanguard Capital Markets Model Development Markets and economy U.S. dollar depreciation this year has driven international equity outperformance For the past three years, the U.S. dollar stood tall – overvalued and seemingly defying its fundamental gravity. But in recent months,…
The long game: Tariffs shape the next era of global investing By Roger Aliaga-Diaz and Kevin Khang Markets and economy Tariffs usher in and accelerate longer-term trends across the global economy. Three themes are worth emphasising as we reach the midpoint of 2025: tariffs are likely to produce both an unmistakable signal and unremitting noise…
Our mid-year investment and economic outlook, June 2025 By Vanguard Markets and economy An improved outlook despite continued policy uncertainty. Australia Hovering uncertainty warrants a dovish central bank. “Given still-elevated levels of global uncertainty, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to adopt a cautiously dovish stance toward further rate cuts.” Grant Feng,…
Portfolios for the risk we may not be imagining By Vanguard Markets and economy Investors have faced a wild ride in 2025. The excitement may not be over. Equity and fixed income markets took less than a month to recover after U.S. tariff announcements in early April sent them reeling, giving investors a valuable opportunity…
Our investment and economic outlook, May 2025 By Vanguard Markets and economy Tariff reprieves, trade deals brighten the economic horizon Global trade developments have made us more optimistic for modest economic growth in 2025. But policy uncertainty remains high. Australia Amid weaker global growth, expect a dovish central bank. “Given the combination of…