The key points are as follows: 2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors, but it was a story of two halves with strong December half returns but more volatility in the past 6 months. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year include: turn down the noise around financial markets, maintain a well-diversified portfolio;…
The key points are as follows: The RBA should avoid calls to raise interest rates prematurely just to prepare households for higher global rates. Such a move would be Iike shooting yourself in the foot in order to practice going to the hospital. Nor should the RBA mess with the inflation target that has served…
The key points are as follows: * 2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up and bond yields rise further. * Watch US inflation, bond…
Key points Worries about an imminent financial crisis remain high. Australians seem particularly negative about the year ahead. However, the global economy is the strongest it’s been in years. More fundamentally, cautious optimism is essential if you wish to succeed as an investor. Download full report
The key points are as follows: Talk of a property crash is likely to ramp up again with signs that the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are cooling. But the Australian property market is a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest. We continue to expect a 5-10% downswing in Sydney and Melbourne property…
The key points are as follows: Despite a lengthy list of worries including Brexit, Trump and messy Australian growth, the past financial year saw strong returns for diversified investors as shares recovered from a rough time in 2015-16 and real assets like unlisted commercial property and infrastructure continued to see strong returns. Key lessons for…
The key points are as follows: Geopolitical issues create much interest, but as we saw over the last year starting with Brexit this doesn’t mean they’ll have a big negative impact on investment markets. However, a backlash against economic rationalist policies and inequality, and the declining relative power of the US globally will likely mean…
The key points are as follows: The closure of speculative short positions in the $A, a bounce in commodity prices, delays in Fed rate hikes and expectations the next interest rate move by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up, have stabilised the $A over the last year. However, the downtrend in the $A…
The key points are as follows: A rebound in the economy in the December quarter confirms that Australia is continuing to grow and avoid recession. There are seven reasons to be upbeat about the Australian outlook: thanks to a more flexible economy Australia is on track to take out the Netherlands for the longest period…
Oliver’s Insights – The Australian economy and profits – seven reasons to be upbeat The key points are as follows: The Sydney and Melbourne property markets have hotted up again and high house prices and household debt leave Australia vulnerable. But a property crash remains unlikely. Expect average home prices to fall 5-10% once an…