Key points are as follows… Starting point valuations – eg yields and price to earnings multiples – are a key driver of potential medium term investment returns. This is particularly so for cash and bonds, and for shares & other growth assets at extremes. At present valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds suggest…
Key points are as follows… A combination of the blanket news coverage of economic worries, the associated information avalanche we are now exposed to and our innate fascination with crises is likely making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery and more focussed on the short term. Investors should recognise that shares climb a wall…
Key points are as follows… · Global, and particularly Australian, shares have seen a bit of a pull back over the last month which could have further to go in the short term. · However, what we are seeing is likely a correction as opposed to a new bear market. From a fundamental point of…
With quantitative easing set to end next month, the Fed is on track to start raising interest rates next year, most likely in the June quarter. The anticipation and then reality of this could cause some volatility in shares. · However, once it gets underway Fed tightening is likely to be gradual and history tells…
The profit reporting season that just ended was reasonably good with profit growth expectations affirmed. · While June quarter GDP growth slowed, it reflects pay back for unbelievably strong March quarter growth. Forward looking indicators point to a gradual pick-up in demand driven by a rebalancing in the economy. · The combination of improving growth…
Oliver’s Insights: The risk of a correction or new bear market in shares Key points: Expect more volatility in shares this year as earnings take over as a key driver and the Fed moves to further taper its monetary stimulus. However, the cyclical bull market in shares is expected to continue as global monetary policy…
This note looks as the increase in the importance of emerging countries in the global economy and what this means for the economic/investment cycle and investors. The key points are as follows: – No matter how much economic and investment issues change, there will always be a cycle. In other words, history may not repeat…
This note looks at the surge in the gold price to a record high. The key points are as follows: – The rise in the gold price is being driven by a combination of factors including: worries about inflation and the outlook for paper currencies, central bank buying, and a fall in the opportunity cost…
This note looks at the outlook for share markets. The key points are as follows: – Shares and other listed growth assets have hit an air pocket in the last two weeks – with most share markets having experienced falls of around 5 to 7%. – It is too early to say that the pull…
This note looks at the outlook for unlisted office, retail and industrial property. The key points are as follows: – Since peaking in late 2007, unlisted commercial property prices have fallen by around 20% as a result of the fallout from the global financial crisis. – However, commercial property values appear to be at, or…