The attached note reviews the performance of investment markets over the last 12 months and takes a look at the outlook for the next 12 months. The key points are as follows: 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as…
The attached note covers the main questions investors commonly have regarding the investment outlook in a simple Q&A format. The key points are as follows: Inflation will likely slow later this year but remain well above pre-pandemic levels over the medium term. Wages growth is likely to pick up to 3% this year. A Russian…
The attached note takes a look at the continuing surge in global inflation pressures, notably in the US. The key points are as follows: Inflation is placing increasing pressure on major central banks to remove monetary stimulus. The Fed is likely to start raising rates in March and we continue to see the RBA starting…
The attached note looks at the gradual shift towards the exits from ultra-easy monetary policy by major central banks and the implications for investment markets. The key points are as follows: The gradual shift of central banks including the Fed and RBA towards an exit from monetary easing has caused some volatility in investment markets.…
With shares coming up to the one year anniversary of their pandemic lockdown driven lows on 23rd March 2020, the attached note takes a look at where we are in the cyclical bull market in shares and the broader investment. The key points are as follows: The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests…
The attached note provides a review of 2020 in terms of what it meant for economies and investors and takes a look at the outlook for 2021. The key points are as follows: 2020 was dominated by the coronavirus pandemic but shares saw okay returns on the back of policy stimulus and vaccine optimism –…
The attached note covers the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format. The key points are as follows: Share markets often lead economic recoveries so the current apparent disconnect is not that unusual. Share markets are likely to see a rotation in favour of cyclical stocks relative to growth stocks and this would…
The attached note takes a look various questions in relation to the impact of the coronavirus on the economy and the response to it, including: why does a big part of the economy have to go into “hibernation”? how long might it be for? how big will the hit to the economy be? what does…
The attached note updates our analysis of the coronavirus outbreak and what it means for the economic and investment outlook and for investors. The key points are as follows: While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets, commodity…
The attached note provides a summary of key insights and views on the investment outlook for 2020 in simple point form. The key points are as follows: Despite ongoing bouts of volatility, 2020 is likely to provide solid investment returns, albeit slower than seen in 2019. Recession remains unlikely (it’s a bigger risk in Australia)…