The attached note takes a look at the outlook for the Australian residential property market. The key points are as follows: The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been undersupplied. The…
The attached note looks at the US-China trade war and its impact on investment markets. The key points are as follows: The trade war between the US and China is escalating, posing a rising threat to global growth. Although we remain of the view that a deal will be reached, the risk has increased. Share…
The attached note looks at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut the official cash rate by 0.25% to a new record low of 1.25%. The key points are as follows: The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for…
The attached note looks at seasonal patterns in share markets. The key points are as follows: Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern of…
The attached note provides a Q&A on the main issues around the housing downturn in Australia. The key points are as follows: Australian home prices are likely to fall another 5-10% this year driven by a further 15% or so fall in Sydney & Melbourne. We have revised our expected top to bottom fall for…
The attached note looks at the outlook for the Australian economy in the face of the housing downturn and fears this will cause a sharp downturn in growth, and what it means for investors. The key points are as follows: Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy…
