The global and Australian sharemarkets have rallied around 40% from their March lows in anticipation of an earnings recovery. Matthew Sherwood, Perpetual’s Head of Investments Market Research evaluates the recovery and finds that although economic growth should improve in H2 2009, markets appear to be experiencing valuation fatigue and will need analysts to upgrade FY2010…
This note looks at the implications of an upturn in the interest rate cycle for investors. The key points are as follows: – With the economic emergency which followed the global financial crisis now fading into history, interest rates will soon start to rise, with Australia likely to lead the way. – While rising rates…
The following notes takes a look behind the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) target cash rate, its impact on commercial lending rates, the $A, and what interest rate changes mean for the economy. Read More
This note reviews the reporting season just ended and equity market valuations. The key points are as follows: – While profits for Australian listed companies fell over the last year, the profit reporting season just ended has been far better than expected. This has been the case globally and share analysts’ earnings expectations are now…
The attached note looks at the equity risk premium – what is it and is it enough? The key points are as follows: – The equity risk premium is the excess return that shares provide over a ‘risk free’ asset like government bonds. – It is perceived that in order to compensate for their greater short-term…
After two weeks of very strong gains, shares are due to a pause. More broadly though, this note looks at outlook for shares. The key points are as follows: – The evidence is continuing to accumulate that shares have embarked on a cyclical recovery. – Further gains are likely: shares are not expensive and an…
As a result of the slump in investment markets last year, most superannuation funds have had another financial year of negative returns, making it two in a row. This note looks at the key issues for investors. The key points are as follows: – While very disconcerting, periodic negative returns from growth assets such as…
This note looks at the outlook for the Australian economy. The key points are as follows: – Australia has so far had a very mild economic downturn compared to other countries and its own history. – However, its likely that the economy went backwards in the June quarter and that this will continue into the…
This note looks at the list of worries being thrown up by commentators and investors in relation to the outlook for shares and other growth assets. The key points are as follows: – There is a long ‘worry list’ being thrown up in regards to the outlook for shares and other growth oriented assets including…
The ATO has reminded employers that their superannuation continues even in these very difficult times. While the value of some super funds has declined recently, super is still the main way many individuals save money to provide benefits for their retirement. Generally, as an employer, you must pay super for your employees if they: –…