The attached note provides a review of 2018 and what it meant for investors and takes a look at the outlook for 2019. The key points are as follows: 2018 saw reasonable global economic and profit growth and still low interest rates but it has been a rough year for investors with worries about the…
The attached note looks at the pullback in share markets seen over the last week or so. The key points are as follows: The current pullback in shares has been triggered by a range of things – but most notably worries about rising US interest rates and the US/China conflict. Shares may still have more…
The attached note looks at nine keys to successful investing: Investing during times of uncertainty can be nerve wracking, but even in good times it can be problematic. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. The key rules I think are…
The attached note looks at the outlook for the US economy, particularly the risk of recession given the flattening US yield curve. The key points are as follows: If you are worried about a major bear market, the US economy is the key to watch. While traditional measures of the US yield curve have flattened…
The key points are as follows: 2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors, but it was a story of two halves with strong December half returns but more volatility in the past 6 months. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year include: turn down the noise around financial markets, maintain a well-diversified portfolio;…
The key points are as follows: The RBA should avoid calls to raise interest rates prematurely just to prepare households for higher global rates. Such a move would be Iike shooting yourself in the foot in order to practice going to the hospital. Nor should the RBA mess with the inflation target that has served…
The key points are as follows: * 2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up and bond yields rise further. * Watch US inflation, bond…
Key points Worries about an imminent financial crisis remain high. Australians seem particularly negative about the year ahead. However, the global economy is the strongest it’s been in years. More fundamentally, cautious optimism is essential if you wish to succeed as an investor. Download full report
The key points are as follows: Talk of a property crash is likely to ramp up again with signs that the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are cooling. But the Australian property market is a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest. We continue to expect a 5-10% downswing in Sydney and Melbourne property…
The key points are as follows: Despite a lengthy list of worries including Brexit, Trump and messy Australian growth, the past financial year saw strong returns for diversified investors as shares recovered from a rough time in 2015-16 and real assets like unlisted commercial property and infrastructure continued to see strong returns. Key lessons for…